USC at Cal - write-up and pick

[BigGamesOnly]

We had a good discussion for the Nebraska/So. Miss. game earlier in the week so I thought I would try to get a similar discussion for another game I feel strongly about.

USC -13.5 at California

I'll get the stats out of the way for those of you who want to see them.

Offense-

USC (per game)
Rush 119
Pass 227
Total 346
Scoring 39.7

Cal (per game)
Rush 119
Pass 258
Total 378
Scoring 27.6

Defense-

USC
Rush 51
Pass 278
Total 328
Scoring 16.7

Cal
Rush 158
Pass 260
Total 418
Scoring 24.4

I feel that USC is arguably playing the best ball of any college team this year while Cal has played well at times and not played well at times. Which team will show up for Cal?

Special circumstances-
Conference opener for both clubs.

Advantage for Cal-
Playing at home.

Advantage for USC-
USC is coming off a week of rest while Cal has played 5 games this year.

Next week's opponent -
for USC - Arizona State
for Cal - Oregon State

When betting on a team I feel is playing well I often look at motivating factors as to why they will beat the spread, not just win the game. Since this is the conference opener I believe USC will want to put this one away and keep it that way. Couple that with having a week off and I feel USC will be fresher than Cal and will be able to score big over a Cal team that has given up points to good teams.

Final score-
USC (40 - 46)
Cal (17 - 20)

USC has been able to limit scoring in the 1st half. I may also decide to go with a 1st half bet of USC -7.5.

I look forward to a good discussion.

 

[Geek]

Nice write up and USC is a big play for me aswell today. Should get the cash!!!

GL

Geek

 

[Roy_Munson]

Excellent write-up. I'm a PAC-10 junky and I know first hand how hard it is to play in Strawberry Canyon when the Cal Bears are fired up.

Will they be fired up? Don't know. They spent a lot of energy with a big win against a bad Illinois team on the road last week.

The home field will mean a lot to Cal but I don't know if they can cover the points. I'll lay off and watch my money work elsewhere.

Good luck.

Big Earn!

 

[bigplaytrends]

Hi BGO, thats one thing I didnt look at when capping this game was the motivational factor for for USC. But Rogers has been playing well for Cal and has a great arm with good accuracy. Cal's defence has held their own this year and could keep this game closer than you think. When the Trojans got hot last year Cal came pretty close to beating them only losing by 2. Goodluck to you but I will back the home dog here at +14

 

[BigPete]

Give Carroll and company time to prepare and they kick ass. USC freak fullback is healthy and will add more offensive threat. This guy is a physical specimen. Anywho, Cal is dangerous on offense and might give a good run.

Big public lean on USC and no line movement, Im staying away. GL.

 

[mt]

I'm on it too BGO. Nice write-up. I like the week off - a lot say SC is the most dominant team in the country, we'll see it today I hope.

 

[BigGamesOnly]

Eddie:

Last year's game was the biggest concern I had (USC 30 - Cal 28 in LA). But the year before that it was USC 55 - Cal 14 at Cal so it's hard to tell from year-to-year.